After three weeks of war, the Trump administration began initial discussions about the next phase and what peace talks with Iran could look like, according to a United States official cited in a report by Axios on Saturday 21 March 2026.
President Trump stated on Friday (20/3) that he is considering reducing the intensity of the war, although United States officials expect the battle to continue for another two to three weeks.
In the meantime, Trump’s advisors want to begin laying the groundwork for a diplomatic solution.
The terms for diplomatic moves
Behind the scenes, envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are participating in discussions about possible diplomatic moves.
Any agreement to end the war would need to include the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the management of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles and the creation of long term agreements on the nuclear program, ballistic weapons and support for regional allies.
There has been no direct contact between the United States and Iran in recent days, although Egypt, Qatar and the United Kingdom have conveyed messages between the sides.
Egypt and Qatar informed the United States and Israel that Iran is interested in negotiations, but with very strict terms.
Iran’s demands include a ceasefire, guarantees that the war will not resume and compensation.
The six commitments
A United States official stated that they want Iran to undertake six commitments, five year suspension of the missile program, zero uranium enrichment, removal of reactors at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, strict external control of centrifuges, arms control agreements with regional countries with a missile cap of 1,000 and no funding of allies such as Hezbollah, Houthis or Hamas.
However, Iran has repeatedly rejected such demands.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told his Indian counterpart that normalization in the Strait of Hormuz requires the United States and Israel to stop attacks and commit not to repeat them.
Trump stated that he does not oppose talks but is not currently interested in Iran’s demands for a ceasefire, while he considers the compensation demands unacceptable.
Mediator sought
Trump’s team is also trying to identify who in Iran makes decisions and which country can act as a mediator.
Although Araghchi was the main mediator in the past, Trump’s advisors do not consider him a decisive factor.
Instead of Oman, the United States prefers Qatar as a mediator due to mutual lack of trust in the Iranian leadership.
Trump’s advisors want to be ready if talks with Iran take shape in the immediate future, with the terms of Witkoff and Kushner resembling those they had presented in Geneva two days before the war began.
Iran believes it is winning and will set draconian terms
Three weeks after the start of the war, the Iranian regime is signaling that it feels it is winning and has the power to impose an agreement on Washington that will establish Tehran’s dominance over the energy resources of the Middle East for decades.
Despite statements by the United States and Israel about the destruction of launchers and missile stockpiles, Iran retains the ability to launch dozens of ballistic missiles and multiple drones daily across the Middle East.
Rather than decreasing, the pace of attacks has increased in recent days compared to ten days ago.
Iranian attacks caused deadly damage to key energy facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, while Iran’s own oil exports continued to increase.
Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains possible only with the approval of Tehran, while rising oil and natural gas prices are putting pressure on economies worldwide and pressuring Trump to end the war that began on 28 February.
Iran’s diplomatic strategy, as explained by analyst Dina Esfandiary, is based on the lesson that it can, at relatively low cost, cause significant damage and disruption both geopolitical and economic at the same time.
Iran has stated that it will agree to a ceasefire only if Washington and its allies pay a high price.
The new Vietnam of the United States
The representative of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of the Iranian Parliament, Ebrahim Rezaei, noted that any talks with the United States are off the agenda, as Tehran is focused on punishing the aggressors.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described Iran as a new Vietnam for the United States, reminding that Tehran will not yield to threats or aggression.
The demands set by Iran include compensation from the United States and its allies, the removal of United States troops from the region and control of the Strait of Hormuz, so as to ensure the security of international oil flows under Iranian supervision.
In contrast to American over-optimism, Tehran shows patience and a strategic approach, turning the war into a means for long term political and economic gains, exploiting its power in energy networks and strategic points of the region.
This strategy confirms that Iran is not merely surviving, but is using the conflict to shape a new balance of power in the Middle East, making control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy its main lever of influence.
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